DPAINorthern Ireland flies to London and the Mediterranean from home. For almost everything across the Atlantic, the trip starts with a drive south across the border. A signal-driven look at the demand Belfast loses to Dublin, and what would bring it home.
DPAINorthern Ireland flies to London and the Mediterranean from home. For almost everything across the Atlantic, the trip starts with a drive south across the border. A signal-driven look at the demand Belfast loses to Dublin, and what would bring it home.
Northern Ireland has its own airports in Belfast and Derry, but Dublin sits under two hours down the motorway with a far bigger long-haul network. Before any route answer comes the evidence: which trips go south, from where, and why.
When Northern Ireland shops for a flight, how often does it start in Dublin, and what decides it?
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · Setting the SceneSearch shows what residents want to buy and which airport they shop from. Location shows who actually arrives, and through which door. Together they measure the detour in both directions.
flight searches by Northern Ireland residents, 2025
Where does Northern Ireland want to go, and where does it start?
visitor devices from North America and Europe, Oct 2024–Sep 2025
Who flies in, through which gateway, and from where?
Searches are pinned to the town they came from; visitors to the ~250 km² area they visited and the country they live in. All device data is anonymized and aggregated before it reaches a slide. Searches show intent, not bookings.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · Data FoundationEvery flight search from Northern Ireland names an origin airport. Split by where people want to go, the picture flips: Belfast wins the short hops and loses the Atlantic.
Does Northern Ireland leak everywhere, or only to some places?
the domestic shuttle is firmly at home
only 13% start in Belfast, barely more than via Great Britain (11%)
The leak is specific. Belfast holds London and most of Europe; the transatlantic market goes south almost entirely.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · 01 · The Outbound LeakEach pie is a town's flight searches, split by the airport it shopped from. Switch markets: the map is gold for London, mixed for Europe, and blue everywhere for the Atlantic.
of all Northern Ireland searches
via Dublin, 131 km away
via Dublin, 84 km away
For the Atlantic, no town in Northern Ireland shops mostly from Belfast, not even Belfast itself.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · 01 · The Outbound LeakIf Dublin won on convenience, its share would fall the further north you live. It does for Europe and London. For North America the line barely moves.
Is Dublin winning on geography, or on network?
190 km from Dublin, Europe stays local
the same town still goes south for North America
Convenience explains the Europe and London curves. The flat transatlantic line says something else: Dublin wins because it has the flights, not because it is close.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · 01 · The Outbound LeakRank the most-searched destinations and colour them by starting airport. Beach routes start at home; city breaks and every North American gateway start in Dublin.
Which trips does Belfast already win, and which does it lose?
Faro 25% · Lanzarote 23%: the sun stays home
Lisbon 67% · Rome 61%: cities go south
Every top-12 U.S. and Canadian destination is shopped more than 60% from Dublin. New York alone draws 274k searches a year from Northern Ireland.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · 02 · What the Detour BuysTransatlantic trips are searched far earlier and last longer than a London hop. That's the calendar a new route would have to sell against.
a third of transatlantic demand is shopped half a year ahead
the shuttle is bought at short notice
U.S., Canada and Europe all peak in January, when summer trips are planned
Long-haul demand is early and predictable: a route filed and marketed in autumn meets January's peak of summer planning.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · 02 · What the Detour BuysWhere devices from abroad went after landing on the island. Darker cells mean more visitors. The arrival airport tells you whose front door they used.
the island's transatlantic front door is south of the border
of North American visitors: the Causeway Coast, Derry, Down
Two in three North American visitors to Northern Ireland landed in Dublin. Their spend starts in another country's airport.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · 03 · The Inbound LeakNorth Americans arrive in summer, as tourists do. European arrivals peak at Christmas, and their evenings are spent in Spain's expat resort towns. This looks like a diaspora flying home.
vs. 46% of North Americans in Jul–Sep
Costa del Sol, Costa Blanca, Canaries, Balearics
Belfast already flies the sun routes these residents live along. Selling them as a way home, not just a holiday, is an untapped inbound market.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · 03 · The Inbound LeakRead together, the signals describe a leak that is specific: not Northern Ireland's demand in general, but its transatlantic demand, in both directions.
of U.S. and Canada searches start at Dublin
Belfast holds 84% of London searches and 55% of Europe, but only 13% of North America.
of Derry's transatlantic searches start at Dublin, 190 km away
For Europe, Dublin's pull fades with distance, down to 28% in Derry. For long-haul it never does.
of North American visitors arrived through Dublin
European visitors split 50/50, and many look like people coming home for Christmas.
Northern Ireland isn't short of demand. It is short of transatlantic seats, so the trip starts with a drive to another country's airport.
DPAIThe Dublin Detour · Executive SummaryThe same signals that measured the detour can size the routes, time the launch and find the audience that would close it.
Rank North American destinations by Northern Ireland searches, then size them against Dublin's schedules and fares.
Search + SchedulesSun routes stay in Belfast. Target the city breaks where Dublin still wins most of the searches.
Search by destinationLong-haul is shopped months ahead and peaks in January. Launch and sell a route on that clock.
Search timingNorth American tourists who land in Dublin today, and the diaspora in Spain's resort towns that flies home each winter.
Location, ongoingDPAIThe Dublin Detour · What It Would Take